Regional Conflict and International Maintenance Management: What Are the Consequences for the Energy Sector?

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is creating ripple effects far beyond the immediate theatre of hostilities. For operators of hydrocarbon processing and transport infrastructure worldwide, the consequences may not make the headlines but they are real and cumulative.

Operating across the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Middle East as a specialist technology provider, Cokebusters is close to this situation. We work directly with Tier 1 and Tier 2 national and international petrochemical companies as well as smaller regional operators, delivering mechanical cleaning, intelligent in-line inspection and integrity management to some of the most critical assets in the energy supply chain. What we are observing on the ground is worth sharing.

A Familiar Pattern – With Important Differences

There are some parallels to be drawn with the COVID-19 era in the sense that petrochemical assets were kept running with limited maintenance. During a period of reduced demand due to lockdowns, there was an imperative to remain online and produce. Inspection work was frequently deferred, classified as discretionary rather than essential, while cleaning operations continued under national critical infrastructure provisions. The pressure to maintain production overrode normal disciplines of planned intervention.

The situation today shares that dynamic but with a significant distinction. Where oil indices slumped in mid-2020, they have risen sharply in recent weeks. The commercial incentive to keep producing is strong. National strategic reserves are under pressure and losses through the Strait of Hormuz must be compensated elsewhere. The motivation to postpone shutdowns is understandable but the risks of doing so are not diminishing. Accordingly, operators are doubtless taking extra care in asset management through this period of uncertain duration.

What We Are Seeing

As hostilities escalated, Cokebusters – in line with standard emergency response protocols – withdrew operational personnel from areas of elevated risk. Airspace closures and restrictions added complexity to an already challenging picture. These are the visible, immediate consequences of conflict on a globally deployed workforce.

Less visible, but arguably more significant, is what is happening to planned maintenance programmes across the industry. Many scheduled turnaround and intervention projects have been postponed. Many operators are choosing to produce rather than pause, which is a rational short-term decision. The question inevitably arises on the definition of “short-term”. Extended process run periods carry consequences, at the least causing eventual maintenance to be more challenging.

Interim measures available to operators such as on-line treatments and modified operating parameters can all extend run time, however they are not substitutes for comprehensive mechanical intervention. They are arguably sticking plasters or band-aid measures, which will only last so long.

The Cost of Deferral

When intervention does eventually take place, the condition of the asset tells the story of every postponed turnaround. In one recent European refinery project, Cokebusters removed four times the volume of coke (contamination on process tube inner lining) typically extracted during a scheduled intervention. The coke was harder, more compacted and more resistant to removal. The job took longer and consumed more equipment, more fuel and more resource. It therefore cost significantly more than a timely intervention would have.

This is not an isolated example. In fact it is becoming a pattern. The backlog of deferred maintenance is building across the sector. Emergency call-out frequency is increasing and the concern is straightforward: when the market inevitably moves from deferral to intervention, the available supply chain may not be sufficient to absorb the volume of work simultaneously required. Timescales will extend, costs will rise and the pressure on both operators and service providers will intensify.

A Credible Path Forward

The most effective response to this situation is not to wait for the bubble to burst. Operators who introduce lower-level, higher-frequency interventions on a progressive basis can meaningfully reduce their deferred maintenance liability without the disruption of a full shutdown. Incremental decoking operations, when conducted at higher frequency, are typically faster, more cost-effective and considerably less disruptive than the remedial work required after extended deferral.

This approach also supports supply chain stability. Distributing intervention activity over time, as opposed to concentrating it into a post-conflict surge, allows specialist service providers to plan, resource and deliver effectively to the benefit of all involved.

Cokebusters is available to discuss asset-specific maintenance strategies with operators across all regions. Our teams remain fully operational and our global deployment capability is undiminished.

Contact us at enquiries@cokebusters.com or visit cokebusters.com to speak with our team.